Few of us anticipated the American invasion of Afghanistan and subsequent political and military actions against other Muslim groups and countries. We might have expected some action had we been aware of the hidden political-economic agenda for Central Asia devised by the American power brokers. We did expect the President to respond to the 9/11 attacks-- a strong response was a political necessity. But we did not expect that Washington would target a country so far away from the United States and so isolated. Nor did we expect attacks there and elsewhere that risked making enemies of nearly a billion people all over the world. Likewise, we did not expect our government to introduce such far-reaching restrictions on personal rights and freedoms as has occurred. We didn't anticipate such strong public support for all these policies. Now, in retrospect, we can see that we might have anticipated these actions if we had been aware of Washington's hidden agenda

. Now the invasion is over. The smoke has cleared away and we are wondering what it was all about. El Qaeda may have had a hand in the 9/11 attacks but the Taliban was never more than a political party that disagreed with American policies. No evidence that they were involved in attacks on the United States has ever been presented. Why did we have to destroy them?

Dr. Chomsky estimates that the invasion created two and a half million more refugees than already existed from earlier military and political activities there. He also believes that half of these two and a half million people would die from starvation and exposure during the coming winter. Our leaders must have felt they had a powerful justification to take action that would cause the death of over a million innocent men, women, and children. The initiation of aggressive action always requires justification. Some recent deployments of the military, along with moves on the diplomatic front, can provide clues as to what to expect next. Where will American troops be deployed next? Why?

Allusions to plans to attack Arab countries are released by Washington from time to time as a smokescreen. They want to hide their real reasons. The occupation of Afghanistan must be examined for its geographical advantage to America. Afghanistan borders Iran and Pakistan, nations unlikely to conform to American political designs and policies. Afghanistan has a large border on the North with the Central Asian republics. Military bases in Afghanistan will provide American aircraft easy access to all of Central Asia as well as Iran, Pakistan and even Western China. But why is this region so important to the United States? Oil!

Only within the past 20 years has the world become aware that the Caspian Sea and bordering countries are sitting on large oil and gas reserves. Known reserves now place them as the third largest ones in the world. Almost every year, the known reserves of this region have expanded with further study; its true quantity is still unknown at this time.

The Caspian Sea is sometimes referred to as the "Russian Lake" because the Former USSR Republics almost surrounded it. Iran is the only other former USSR country with a border on the Sea. Much of that Sea forms a boundary for the enormous Republic of Kazakhstan. Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan are the three smaller republics that nestle along the southern shores of the Caspian. Russia interests are in the north Caspian Sea and Iran's interests are in the Southeast.

The Caspian Republics that will be major producers are Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and, later, Kazakhstan. Their borders are in some dispute and the ownership of the oil reserves has not been fully established. Continuing disputes among these countries and their neighbors will threaten the sources of production. Azerbaijan (capital, Baku), has been the major producer, but Kazakhstan is expected to increase production greatly.

Kazakhstan was the last to commit themselves to the West and they still carry on dialogue with Iran. Iran has big geographic claim to Caspian oil reserves but has not been able to develop them yet. They have been busy exploiting their own Persian Gulf fields to the south. American and other Western countries want the Caspian oil for their own use and for sale around the world. Neighboring countries also need the oil. Turkey and Pakistan both need oil badly. China is far away but it is such a large country that it needs to import oil from wherever it can be obtained. As India develops, another big market for oil will be created.

The three big nations close to the Caspian region are Russia, Turkey, and Iran. The United States has become the fourth major power to become heavily involved in planning to take advantage of these deposits, despite the geographic distance between producer and the American market.

The USSR lost her "ownership" and control of the Caspian Sea oil when the former Soviet Republics broke away 20 years ago. Still, she has the second largest reserves in the world. Siberia is under her control, although transportation problems are tremendous. Russia is very influential in Central Asia and uses her military might to enforce control over Afghanistan and Chechnya. The United States has sidelined both Russia and Iran. This power struggle is the focus of this paper.

American support for Afghan resistance to the USSR was based upon a farsighted recognition that fractionating Central Asian political power would permit American access and control. Although both the Afghanistan and Chechnya Republics accepted American assistance in their resistance to USSR control, they have not been ready to accept American political influence. The failure of American diplomacy provoked the Afghan invasion. The American plan requires that these countries be kept politically dependent upon the United States and independent of Russia and Iran.

These two countries tend to support one another in their struggle for political power. Islam, in these countries and others, is a force that works toward sympathetic alliance of peoples across political boundaries and hence is a threat to outsiders trying to control their governments. America has neutralized Iraq and is constantly scheming on how to do the same with Iran. At the same time, America is working to support other national governments that are ready to help them achieve Western political and economic goals.

The declaration of the "War against Terrorism" has strengthened the hand of all governments in dealing with dissenters among their constituents. Now, even unpopular regimes can suppress dissent without a World outcry that people's human rights are being violated. Under the guise of fighting "terrorism," America will be assured of public support so it can supply any repressive regime with weapons to maintain order.

In the "war against terrorism" it has become legitimate for the army to do the work of the police and even that of the judiciary. America now has justification for sending military units to these Caspian region countries. The foreign forces are disguised as experts to train the units of the local army. The trainees will be used by tyrants to enforce political suppression of their people. America sent the military into most of the countries in that region. Georgia was added to the list most recently. America is no longer reluctant to support Turkey, a frequent violator of human rights.

The logistics of transporting oil and gas over great distances is a major concern. Overland pipelines always pass through more than one country. Countries selected for these routes will benefit greatly from the land-lease revenues called royalties. If they are not politically stable, the flow of oil to the West could be cut off easily. Secret official action or political gangs can bomb the pipelines to disrupt the flow. Which countries can be trusted to look out for Western interests? Which countries should the West support to receive these revenues to help build stronger pro-Western economies?

Russia, Turkey, and Iran are the competing players in this transportation game. America is not very likely to encourage an increase in Russian strength in the region. The Russians tried to build a large pipeline running through Chechnya but failed because of the civil unrest. Russia has been shipping oil down through the Black Sea but Turkey placed a restriction on the size of tankers that could traverse the Bosphorus and the Straits of Dardanelle. This restriction on shipping in international waters is supposedly to protect the environment from large oil spills. Russia claims that it is an illegal action, designed to prevent her from free transport of oil by water. The United States certainly is vehemently opposed to Iran benefiting from the construction of pipelines. This leaves Turkey as the only choice for the Americans.

America is strongly committed to her choice of Turkey as a surrogate power in the Middle East and Central Asia. The increasing American military buildup in Turkey and the use of bases there for operations against Muslims in other countries has tested the Turkish people's tolerance for having an outsider determining their political policies. The use of Turkish bases against Iraq, and then Afghanistan, has shown that the Turkish government can control their Muslim dissenters. The Turkish government has received justification for suppressing all opposition because of the worldwide acceptance of the "war against Terrorism." The United States even has successfully forced the Turkish government to take locally unpopular actions in support of Israel. Turkey has participated in bilateral military maneuvers with Israel and now Israel has received a major contract to supply Turkey with tanks. No doubt, they exchange intelligence information about their Arab neighbors. The Turkish people, as well as their politicians, have always been obsessed with their need to be seen as a Western country. Some years ago they petitioned the European Union to become a member. It has not happened, but it will, as a reward for cooperation with the West.

Major competition and controversy over the route of the new pipelines has raged for years. The American public neither knows nor cares much about these matters. The American position is firm - A wall must be built around Iran and maintained at all costs. No new pipelines must go overland through Iran even though the distance to a port to load tankers would be several times shorter than a route through Turkey. America will resist the construction of new pipelines running through Russia and Former Republic territories. However, a new pipeline through Georgia (Christian, therefore less likely to experience political unrest) and down through Turkey to carry Kazakhstan oil is being discussed. A pipeline from Azerbaijan through Turkey, the Baku-Cehan pipeline, has been established on paper to meet current Western needs-- this, despite the cost being three times as much as one going down through Iran. Construction plans have been developed for it and financing has been obtained through an international consortium.